Design of a short fresh food supply chain considering risks from harvest conditions and price volatility

Short fresh food supply chains are increasingly recognised for their contribution to food sovereignty and rural development in emerging economies. However, existing research has primarily addressed operational efficiency or environmental performance, often overlooking the financial risks faced by smallholder farmers when intermediaries are removed from the distribution network. This study addresses this gap by proposing a commitment-based mixed-integer linear programming model for the design of a short fresh food supply chain composed of a small-scale farmers’ association and multiple customers. The model simultaneously optimises crop selection and product distribution decisions over a multi-period horizon, pursuing three financial objectives: maximising total cash flow, maximising the minimum cash flow per period, and minimising the mean absolute deviation of cash flow as a measure of financial risk. Results reveal that the model generates a robust crop allocation and flow distribution strategy capable of stabilising farmers’ income and mitigating the impacts of harvest uncertainty and price volatility. Overall, the study contributes a novel risk-aware optimisation framework that enhances the financial resilience and sustainability of smallholder-based food supply chains, offering practical insights for policy design and strategic planning in vulnerable agricultural contexts.