Pólya urn model for analysis of football passes

This study analyzes pass networks in football (soccer) using a stochastic model known as the Pólya urn. By focusing on preferential selection, it theoretically demonstrates that the time evolution of networks can be characterized by a single parameter. Building on this result, a data analysis method is proposed and applied to a large-scale public dataset of professional football matches. The statistical properties of the preferential-selection parameter are examined, demonstrating its correlation with pass accuracy and with mean pass difficulty. This method is applicable to various evolving networks.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Physical review. E
Published
2025-10-31
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1103/w5wk-mmcc
Primary Topic
Sports Analytics and Performance
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

Funders

Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Pólya urn model for analysis of football passes

Karl J. Friston
Physical review. E
Sports Analytics and Performance
article

Pólya urn model for analysis of football passes

Karl J. Friston
article en

Abstract

This study analyzes pass networks in football (soccer) using a stochastic model known as the Pólya urn. By focusing on preferential selection, it theoretically demonstrates that the time evolution of networks can be characterized by a single parameter. Building on this result, a data analysis method is proposed and applied to a large-scale public dataset of professional football matches. The statistical properties of the preferential-selection parameter are examined, demonstrating its correlation with pass accuracy and with mean pass difficulty. This method is applicable to various evolving networks.

Physical review. EVol. 112(6)
University of the Ryukyus University Hospital (JP)
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
Openalex Percentile: Top 58%
Sports Analytics and Performance
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.