Climate-resilient genetic selection in cattle: Insights from resilience phenotypes of Fogera cattle under climate variabilities

This study aimed to derive novel resilience phenotypes in response to climatic variability using pedigree and phenotypic data from 646 Fogera cows recorded between 1998 and 2011. The data included average daily milk yield, productive longevity, functional longevity, and heat tolerance index. Resilience phenotypes were estimated through genotype-by-environment interaction analyses using a random regression model with reaction norm functions, integrated with climate data accessed from the NASA POWER database. Genetic parameters and correlations between resilience and economic traits were estimated using the animal model using Average Information Restricted Maximum Likelihood (AIREML) of WOMBAT. Genetic trends were evaluated by regressing estimated breeding values (EBVs) by calving year. Future resilience potential under projected climate scenarios was analyzed using downscaled data from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal, applying bias correction and quantile mapping at a 10 km resolution. Results showed that increasing temperature-humidity index and declining rainfall significantly reduced resilience phenotypes of Fogera cattle. Heritability estimates were low to moderate under both temperature-humidity index and rainfall variability, suggesting a moderate genetic basis for adaptive traits. Negative genetic correlations between milk yield, longevity, and resilience traits indicated antagonism between productivity and adaptability. The genetic decline in resilience likely resulted from selection emphasizing productivity over adaptability. Across all climate scenarios, resilience potential consistently declined, emphasizing the need for climate-smart breeding strategies integrating resilience and production traits to ensure sustainable genetic progress under changing climatic conditions.