Cultural investments and gentrification: An urban transformation study of the city of Milan between 2001 and 2021

Culture is increasingly leveraged as a strategic tool for urban regeneration, often positioned as a driver of socio-economic development. However, growing evidence highlights how cultural investment, while revitalizing urban areas, can also reinforce dynamics of gentrification, leading to inequality, exclusion, and displacement. This paper investigates the intersection of cultural investment and urban transformation, using Milan as a case study. It examines whether and how cultural openings correlate with differentiated patterns of gentrification across neighborhoods. By moving beyond isolated case studies, the paper adopts a city-wide, spatialized approach to urban change. Using a mixed-methods framework, we combine Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to construct gentrification indices with geospatial analysis of cultural institution openings over two decades. The findings reveal a significant association between cultural investment and socio-economic transformation. However, this relationship is not uniform: while in some neighborhoods culture amplifies gentrification processes, in others it plays a more ambiguous or limited role. We propose a typology of neighborhood trajectories, such as Cultural Catalysts, Speculative Growth Areas, and Silent Zones, highlighting how the timing, scale, and nature of cultural interventions interact with pre-existing urban conditions. Our results underline the importance of designing place-sensitive cultural policies that avoid one-size-fits-all approaches. If poorly regulated, cultural investment risks contributing to displacement and reinforcing urban inequalities. Conversely, when strategically aligned with local needs, it can support inclusive and sustainable urban development. This research offers both analytical tools and policy insights for managing the cultural dimensions of urban change. • City-wide, longitudinal study of culture-led gentrification in Milan • Combines PCA-based gentrification index with spatial cultural investment data • Identifies four neighborhood trajectories: Catalysts, Precursors, Speculative, Silent Zones • Shows culture rarely initiates but amplifies socio-economic transformation • Highlights policy need for integrated cultural, housing, and infrastructure action