Advancing an already high-performance smart building with model predictive control: Multi-layer optimization under forecast uncertainty in a real building case

Thermal energy systems in buildings play a central role in global decarbonization efforts, accounting for a significant share of energy use and carbon emissions. This study addresses a key research question: how can advanced control strategies further enhance the performance of already energy-efficient, low-exergy thermal systems in low-energy buildings? To address this, a model predictive control (MPC) framework is designed to optimize the operation of an advanced thermal system based on modern concepts of low-temperature heating and high-temperature cooling, including ground-source heat pumps, borehole thermal storage, and modern air handling units. This approach employs a multi-layered MPC cost function, considering both immediate operational costs (electricity and heating) as well as system impact penalties, such as CO₂ emissions, thermal energy storage preservation, comfort violations, and peak load shaving, in response to fluctuating market cost signals, outdoor temperature, and thermal storage limitations. Applied to a validated, ultra-efficient commercial building, the MPC framework achieves a 13 % reduction in annual market-responsive operational costs, a 20 % improvement in long-term savings, and a four-year shorter payback period compared to existing well-established rule-based control. The results further confirm the robustness of predictive control under realistic forecast errors, as demonstrated by Monte Carlo simulations. From an environmental perspective, the CO₂ emission index stays below both Swedish electricity and district heating baselines, demonstrating the environmental benefits of predictive control through strategic sector coupling. Beyond the case study, the proposed method provides a scalable pathway for integrating predictive control into next-generation smart buildings. It highlights the potential of MPC as the final optimization layer in advanced thermal systems, aligning with global objectives for cost-promising and carbon-neutral building operations. • How can MPC with a novel cost function improve an already efficient thermal system? • Real-time MPC via TRNSYS–C++ co-simulation using PAGMO and Differential Evolution. • 13 % operational cost savings and 85 % TES degradation reduction under uncertainty • MPC impact relies on system flexibility and is strongest in transitional seasons. • Long-term NPV nearly doubled; payback shortened by 4+ years vs. rule-based control.