Global, regional, and national burdens of lip and oral cavity cancer in the adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2021 and its predictions

Oral cancer is among the most common malignant tumors of the head and neck. However, a comprehensive assessment of the burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) in adolescents and young adults (AYAs) aged 15 to 39 is still lacking. Using age- and sex-stratified data across global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021, this study aimed to provide a comprehensive estimate of the burden of LOC in the AYAs population and analyzed global data on the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) linked to AYAs LOC from 1990 to 2021. Age-standardized rate and estimated annual percentage change, were used to assess AYAs LOC trends across gender, age, and socio-demographic index, as well as to evaluate disparities between countries. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was applied to forecast the disease burden from 2022 to 2041. In 2021, there were 29,223 cases of LOC globally (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 24,871-33,190), resulting in 9815 deaths (95% UI: 8038-11,421) and 581,394 DALYs (95% UI: 474,111-677,536). At the regional, South Asia has the highest incidence, mortality, DALYs, and age-standardized rate by Global Burden of Disease classification. At the national, India had the highest numbers for incidence, deaths, and DALYs, while Palau recorded the highest age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate. The burden is most pronounced among AYAs aged 35 to 39. Among those aged 15 to 24, women experienced a greater burden than men, while in the 25 to 39 age group, men had a higher burden. Projections indicate that by 2041, the burden of LOC will continue to rise, with a greater impact on men than women. From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of LOC, when adjusted for age, has increased. However, regional variations have been observed, with the burden decreasing in some areas. Consequently, monitoring the condition of young patients with LOC is crucial for reducing this overall burden. Limitations remain in this study: data gaps in low-income countries affect the accuracy of the Global Burden of Disease, and the burden of LOC on AYAs was not stratified. Future work needs to improve data collection.