Assessing the Impact of Urban Development on Vertical Ground Deformation Using Satellite-Based Remote Sensing Techniques

Urban subsidence, a complex phenomenon causing widespread ground settlement, poses a significant challenge to urban resilience, an issue central to the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11. While prior studies have investigated multiple subsidence drivers, the long-term influence of urban development patterns and subsurface conditions has remained insufficiently understood. This study proposes a robust methodology to dynamically assess subsidence trends in relation to evolving urban development. Using Sentinel-1A InSAR datasets validated by geodetic leveling observations, we analyze urban subsidence over a decade (2014-2024). By integrating urban development patterns with a 3D city model, we evaluate subsurface pressure and building density. A two-step approach was applied to detect the evolution of vertical subsidence alongside ongoing construction activities. When tested in Taipei City, the framework reveals a strong correlation between intensified urban construction, high building density, and soft soil conditions. The city is subsiding at an average rate of -5 mm/year, with localized zones experiencing rates as high as -11 mm/year. Quantitative validation against leveling observations showed a strong correlation (ρ ≈ 0.8) and an NRMSE of 0.66 mm/year, confirming the robustness of the estimated deformation rates. Despite variations in building weight density, subsidence remains relatively uniform, with rates nearly doubling in dense building clusters since 2018. These results emphasize that subsurface deformation progresses with increased development intensity, highlighting the importance of adopting this scalable approach to inform sustainable urban planning and infrastructure resilience globally.