Forecasting Energy Consumption of Global Transport in the Context of Intensifying Inter-Fuel Competition

The article presents calculation results for energy consumption in the global transport sector with a forecast up to 2050 using the Global Model of Forecasting Energy Demand from Transport developed at ERIRAS, which is a tool that improves and complements the forecasting practices available in Russia and abroad. For rail and air transport in the fleet structure, energy demand is determined econometrically as a function of macroparameters (GDP and population). Energy consumption of road and maritime transport is calculated taking into account future changes in the structure and number of vehicles, parameters of interfuel competition, and other input data. In order to determine the forecast demand in countries where statistical input information is insufficiently detailed, cluster analysis is used. The calculations show that by 2050, the total energy demand from global transport will increase by 26–30%, while the share of oil products, which currently provide for over 93% of the total transport needs, will inevitably decrease to 79–87%, yielding competitive positions to other alternatives.