Macroeconomic, Social and Structural Consequences of Import Restrictions: Modelling Using the Input-Output Approach (on the Example of Uzbekistan)

Growing global instability stimulates research into the conditions and factors that shape the potential for sustainable development. In recent years, difficult-to-predict price surges in global commodity markets have been compounded by shocks caused by disruptions in established global supply and distribution chains. Many questions arise here: how to assess the vulnerability of the economy to declines in import supplies; what modeling tools are needed for this; how to justify the priorities of import substitution policy, and a number of others. To answer them, the article proposes a special model configuration of the input-output approach based on the Leontief production function, technological coefficients of inputs of intermediate imports, their industry distribution and the relationships between the coefficients of direct inputs for imported and domestic intermediate products. The model allows us to estimate both direct and indirect effects of the shock of import restrictions for the economy as a whole, its individual industries and sectors, the income of employees and the state, and changes in unemployment. Using the developed model on the example of Uzbekistan, the hypothesis about the negative impact of accelerated liberalization of foreign trade on macroeconomic stability in the context of maintaining or increasing the existing level of import dependence is analyzed. Based on model calculations, priorities of import substitution policy are substantiated, taking into account not only economic but also social criteria.