Does Low-Carbon Pilot City Policy Reduce Transportation CO2 Emissions? Evidence from China

Transportation is one of the major carbon dioxide (CO2)-emitting industries, facing substantial reduction pressure under low-carbon sustainable development. Cities are key to reducing transportation CO2 emissions, and the Low-Carbon City Pilot Policy (LCCPP) is essential to advance the development of low-carbon cities and achieve peak-carbon and carbon-neutral targets. In this paper, we analyse the effect of the LCCP on transportation CO2 emissions using a multiperiod difference-in-differences (DID) method with data from 284 Chinese cities between 2006 and 2020. The results indicate a substantial reduction in urban transportation CO2 emissions through the LCCP, and that the enhancement of urban public transportation levels and residents’ green mobility are effective ways to accomplish this. This conclusion is upheld after conducting various robustness tests. Examination of the heterogeneity of the results and spatial analysis revealed that the LCCPP significantly reduced transportation CO2 emissions in eastern, western, and low-economy cities in China, but not in central and high-economy cities, that the reduction effect was better for southern, non-resource-based cities than for northern, resource-producing cities, and that it exerted notable spillover effects in surrounding cities. The results of this paper offer valid policy insights and practical guidance to maximise the CO2 reduction effects of the LCCP in the transportation sector.