Phase-Specific Mixture of Experts Architecture for Real-Time NOx Prediction in Diesel Vehicles: Advancing Euro 7 Compliance

The implementation of Euro 7 emission standards demands advanced real-time NOx monitoring systems for diesel vehicles. Existing unified models inadequately capture phase-dependent emission mechanisms during cold-start, urban, and highway operation. This study develops a novel Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture with data-driven phase classification based on aftertreatment thermal dynamics. Real-world data from a Euro 6d commercial vehicle (3247 PEMS samples) were classified into three phases, cold (<70 °C coolant temperature), hot low-speed (<90 km/h), and hot high-speed (≥90 km/h), validated through t-SNE analysis (silhouette coefficient = 0.73). The key innovation integrates thermal–kinematic domain knowledge with specialized XGBoost regressors, achieving R2 = 0.918 and a 58% RMSE reduction versus unified models (RMSE = 1.825 mg/s). The framework operates within real-time constraints (1.5 ms inference latency), integrating autoencoder-based anomaly detection (95.2% sensitivity) and Model Predictive Control (11–13% NOx reduction). This represents the first systematic phase-specific NOx modeling framework with validated Euro 7 OBM compliance capability, providing both methodological advances in expert allocation strategies and practical solutions for next-generation emission control systems.