Weather in my life: Dan Harris

I’ve been fascinated by the weather, and the natural world more broadly, for as long as I can remember. I think it comes from my mum – she would take me to a spot overlooking the Norfolk Broads to watch the sunset, and in the 1990s, we had some tremendous summer thunderstorms that we’d sit and watch together from the garden. I can picture individual lightning flashes even now. One of my earliest weather memories is of her dragging me into school because the wind was so strong I couldn’t walk up the driveway! As a child, I had a very basic weather station, taking daily measurements and plotting them on graphs, with aspirations of one day becoming a Met Office observer. I also took hundreds of photos of clouds, carefully filing them into albums – something I still do today, though of course it is all digital now. The real turning point came in my first year of high school. After winning a ‘gold merit award’, one of my teachers arranged for me to spend a day at Norwich Weather Centre. That visit gave me my first real insight into the world of weather forecasting, and it left a lasting impression. For me, it’s all about watching the weather evolve. There’s a real beauty in seeing an explosively deepening low on satellite imagery, tracking a tropical cyclone or spotting a splitting supercell on radar. Although the UK’s climate is relatively temperate compared with many parts of the world, it brings its own unique challenges. Every day poses something different, and that variety keeps the job interesting. What I enjoy most is the challenge of piecing together what’s likely to happen and why – and then, as part of my duties, explaining that to other meteorologists so they can factor it into their own forecast considerations. That mix of science, problem-solving and communication is what makes the work so rewarding. I’m one of a team of Deputy Chief Meteorologists at the Met Office, working a 24/7 shift roster in 12h blocks alongside our Chief Meteorologists. The role is extremely varied. On the one hand, we’re the senior meteorologists on shift, responsible for national decision-making; on the other, we’re also leaders within the profession, with responsibilities that extend far beyond day-to-day forecasting. Operationally, the job involves analysing a huge volume of model and observational data, and combining that with experience and expertise to generate the main forecast storyline. That narrative provides the framework for the rest of the forecasting teams to work within, and tailor to their specific customer groups. Our top priority is issuing warnings as part of the National Severe Weather Warnings Service (NSWWS; the yellow, amber and red warnings people see on TV, the web or on the Met Office app). We also make the decision over whether a particular windstorm should be named or not, in collaboration with our partners at Met Éireann and the Dutch meteorological agency KNMI. As a Deputy Chief, I support the Chief Meteorologist directly – whether by producing analysis and forecast charts, contributing to NSWWS decisions or providing a second opinion. My main responsibility, however, is the provision of ‘medium-range’ guidance, covering anything from overmorrow to around a month ahead. A typical shift begins with a handover at 0700h or 1900h, then quickly assimilating the latest model runs and observations to build a coherent forecast. From there, I share that guidance through written updates, graphics, conferences and briefings. Consideration of severe weather warnings with the Chief and other partners often takes up a good part of the morning if the situation demands it. I also produce the T+36h to T+120h forecast charts. These are based on whichever model or blend of models I judge best represents the likely evolution – which is not always our own global model. Although medium-range forecasting is my primary duty, the Deputy Chief role is broader. At different times, I also work as a ‘nowcaster’, focusing on convective weather during the summer when storms can develop rapidly, and as a Global Guidance forecaster, providing guidance and information to stakeholders with an international interest, such as government, other meteorological agencies and Met Office meteorologists overseas. Each strand of the role requires a different focus, which makes the job all the more varied. It’s hard to pick a single ‘most enjoyable’ moment because I’ve had many over my 18 years at the Met Office. Time spent with new colleagues on my Initial Forecasting Course deserves an honourable mention – both the classroom learning and the socialising outside it. Later, as an instructor in those same classrooms, I loved teaching the next cohorts of meteorologists, which not only allowed me to pass on my knowledge but also helped me deepen my own understanding of the wider subject. Probably both the most enjoyable and challenging part of my career was when I first became a Deputy Chief. It was challenging because it took me far out of my comfort zone – my previous experience had been relatively narrow, from six years as an aviation forecaster at a military helicopter base, followed by a period as an instructor and only a brief stint as a senior forecaster in the World Area Forecasting Centre. It took time to find my feet in the Deputy Chief role and fully embrace the extra responsibilities, and there were moments when I wondered if I had made the right decision. Yet at the same time, it was incredibly enjoyable. I was working in the most senior forecasting team in the Met Office, alongside some of the top meteorologists in the country, from whom I could learn and grow. And I’m still enjoying it today – there’s always something new to learn, and I continue to work with colleagues who constantly challenge me and expand my knowledge. Since the advent of computers and numerical weather prediction (NWP), there has been talk of replacing forecasters with automation. In practice, some aspects of forecasting have become more automated over time, but the Met Office and private sector companies too still employ hundreds of professional meteorologists to provide forecasts and advice alongside the automated data where it matters. Over the past few decades, our tools and model data have improved dramatically. The job is now less about working hard just to get a forecast roughly right, and more about providing detailed, sector-specific guidance using high-quality model output. Even so, customer expectations often outpace what data alone can deliver, so there will continue to be a need for experts to interpret and translate that information. Artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models pose big questions for the future of the role. At present, AI models are just another tool in the toolbox, but future developments such as the ability to run super-ensembles or rapid, bespoke, situation-dependent models could completely change the way we use computers to produce a forecast. Large language models open up the potential to automate a much larger number of text-based products that traditional automation has hitherto failed to adequately reproduce. All that being said, NWP alone is never going to be perfect; there will always be something that the skilled and practiced meteorologist can add, whether that be an improvement to the forecast itself, quality assurance or the advice on top. I’m certain there will continue to be a place for expert forecasters in the years to come, even if the role evolves from what it is today. Study hard and earn your degree – preferably in meteorology, maths or a physical science. For a career in operational meteorology, that is sufficient. A Master’s or Doctorate may put you ahead of the pack when it comes to recruitment, but it’s not strictly necessary; I joined with a Bachelor’s degree in Meteorology and Oceanography from the University of East Anglia. Have a passion for the weather, or at least a passing interest that can grow into one. Forecasting is a tough job, particularly at the start of your career, and it helps if you really care about the subject. Don’t be in a hurry to get straight to the top – a mistake which, with the benefit of hindsight, I feel I made. Particularly if you join the Met Office, there are so many opportunities to develop, not only in forecasting roles but also in other areas, such as communications, technology, research, leadership and management. The skills and experiences you pick up along the way will stand you in good stead to succeed in senior roles in meteorology, where strong technical expertise is very important but not the only necessary string to your bow. They will also lead to a happy and varied career, helping you develop as a well-rounded professional. Finally, make sure you can handle night shifts. Although we strive to reduce night working wherever possible, forecasting anywhere that operates 24/7 inevitably involves sometimes being awake and alert at three in the morning! Self-led continuous professional development (CPD) has always been an important part of my career. It helps me improve and progress in my job and allows me to maintain my Chartered Meteorologist status with the Royal Meteorological Society, which I have held since 2014. I have been co-Editor of Weather news since January 2022, first alongside my colleague Steven Keates and more recently with Zoe Hutin, who I also work with at the Met Office. The monthly routine of compiling each issue has become a valuable part of my CPD. It gives me the chance to look across a broad range of meteorological news and topics, and to dig into the details that interest me most by going back to original research papers or official communications from organisations such as the WMO, the UN or relevant national meteorological agencies. One area where this has been especially rewarding is artificial intelligence in weather modelling. Before writing for Weather news, I knew little about it, but researching articles has given me knowledge that I now use regularly as AI becomes part of everyday meteorology. My interests within meteorology are quite broad, but I am especially drawn to extreme weather events and their climatological context, tropical cyclones, UK windstorms and global climate phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the tropical monsoons. When stories in these areas come along, I like to take the lead on writing them after discussing ideas with Zoe. I try to bring my professional insight and experience to each piece, and the research I do for each article usually teaches me a great deal. I hope that adds depth for our readers and makes the stories as enjoyable to read as they are to write.