Risk Assessment for Reducing Thermoset Waste: Predictive Modelling of Water Ageing in Epoxy Infrastructure

Thermoset composites are a fast-growing waste stream that resists conventional reusing routes. Water is the principal ageing agent for epoxy-based thermoset materials that bind high-pressure piping, wind-turbine blades and aircraft skins, yet its action is deceptively complex: a rapid, reversible plasticisation is often followed by a far slower, irreversible chemical hydrolysis. Here we bridge that gap to access a reliable diagnosis inspection. Gravimetric immersion tests (from 8 to 93 °C, up to more than a year) and in situ FTIR spectroscopy were performed on four industrial DGEBA networks (two amine-cured matrices and two anhydride-cured matrices that hydrolyse). This 2 + 2 design isolates reversible from irreversible changes and exposes the individual signatures of diffusion, specific sorption and bond scission. The data are rationalised with a compact three-contribution model that superposes Fickian diffusion through nano-voids, adsorption site saturation through hydrogen bonds and a power-law hydrolysis term sharing global Arrhenius parameters. Since the parameters retain clear physical meaning, the approach can be extrapolated to service temperatures, providing a fast, transparent tool for lifetime prediction and for separating recoverable plasticisation from permanent chemical degradation in critical epoxy infrastructure.