Wildfire impact analysis on power system operation: a framework leveraging physics-based wildfire simulation and dynamic line rating

• Models wildfire heat impact on overhead line thermal capacity. • Quantifies line capacity reduction during wildfire exposure. • Assesses the economic impact of constrained grid operation. • Demonstrates the role of vegetation management in preserving conductor’s thermal capacity during wildfire exposure. The growing frequency and intensity of wildfires is significantly impacting power grid operations. Specifically, wildfires spreading to power lines can induce thermal stress, leading to a restriction in line capacity. This reduction imposes a challenge for electric utilities as they must supply electric demand while experiencing reduced transmission capacity. This paper introduces a model that simulates wildfire behavior in proximity to a transmission line, evaluates the impact on conductor temperature and capacity constraints, and subsequently analyzes the impact on grid operation from economic and reliability perspectives. The numerical studies conducted on the IEEE 14-bus test system assess both economic and reliability perspectives under three scenarios: normal conditions, wildfire conditions with high-risk vegetation, and wildfire conditions with low-risk vegetation. Results show an 8 % increase in total operational cost under high-risk vegetation, which is reduced to a 1 % increase when vegetation risk is low. The wildfire exposure also leads to significant derating of the affected line, with maximum capacity reductions of 57 % and 22 % in the high- and low-risk scenarios, respectively, relative to normal conditions. These findings offer a strategy to maintain operational resilience for a power grid during wildfire and highlight the critical role of vegetation management in mitigating wildfire impact on transmission lines.