REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC DISBALANCES IN BULGARIA - ANALYSIS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS, BIRTH RATE AND MORTALITY

This article AIMS to analyze the regional demographic disbalances in Bulgaria for the period 2003-2023. It examines the main demographic processes – birth rate, mortality, natural increase and migration - and assesses their impact on the socio-economic development of the country, including the labor market, health, education and pension systems. The study is based on a quantitative analysis of statistical data from the National Statistical Institute (NSI) and INFOSTAT for the period 2003-2023. Standard demographic METHODS are applied to calculate and analyse birth rate and mortality. Data on internal and external migration, as well as on the population structure by place of residence (urban/rural) and by region are analysed. The analysis of the obtained results reveals critical demographic trends: a significant decrease in the population of Bulgaria by 1 355 792 people over the last 20 years, determined by a persistently low birth rate, a high death rate and a negative natural increase, which in 2023 will reach -6.8‰. Regional imbalances are deepening, with intensive depopulation of rural and northern areas of the country. Demographic ageing is accelerating, with the average age of the population reaching 45.2 years. These processes are putting severe pressure on social systems, leading to labour shortages and contributing to economic instability.