Decoupling carbon emissions from power sector growth in Indonesia

Abstract As a major emitter in Indonesia’s fossil fuel–dominated energy system, the electricity sector plays a pivotal role in driving the country’s low-carbon transition. Thus, this paper examined the decoupling status and driving factors of CO₂ emissions in Indonesia from 2001 to 2023 by developing a comprehensive framework that integrates the Tapio decoupling model with the LMDI decomposition technique. Strong decoupling occurred only in a few periods (e.g., 2008–2009, 2015–2016, 2017–2018), while most years exhibited either relative decoupling or no decoupling. Further analysis reveals that electricity output is the primary driver of carbon emission growth, while improvements in energy intensity are the most significant factor in reducing emissions. The contributions of power generation structure and energy mix to emission mitigation remain relatively modest, while the influence of emission factors is negligible. These findings underscore the urgent need for Indonesia to improve energy efficiency, accelerate renewable energy deployment, and establish a more stable and systematic decarbonization framework for its power sector.