Tails Through Time: Leopard population dynamics in the Little Karoo

Knowledge of leopard ( Panthera pardus ) persistence over time in mixed-use landscapes is limited, particularly in semi-arid regions of southern Africa. This study aimed to estimate leopard population changes over time and to investigate possible drivers affecting density, using three camera trap surveys (2012, 2017, 2022), in the Little Karoo, Western Cape, South Africa. To our knowledge, this is the only multi-session spatial capture-recapture (SCR) analysis conducted in a semi-arid southern Africa environment encompassing both protected and non-protected areas. The best-performing density model indicated that the leopard population remained stable with a density of 0.92 leopards per 100 km 2 (95 % CI: 0.74–1.16) over the study period. Terrain ruggedness was an important driver of leopard density, indicating that rugged elevated areas are key leopard habitat within the region. This study shows that a charismatic species can survive in a mixed-use landscape abundant with anthropogenic threats. It further serves to highlight the value of multi-session SCR modelling in developing targeted conservation efforts. • This study provided the first estimate of a leopard population trend in the Western Cape, South Africa. • Data from three camera trap surveys spanning a 10-year period were analysed in the Little Karoo region. • Leopard (Panthera pardus) population density remained stable across three surveys (2012, 2017, 2022). • Estimated density of leopards in the region was 0.92 leopards per 100 km2 (95% CI: 0.74–1.16). • Terrain ruggedness was an important driver of leopard density in the Little Karoo.