Preconditions for success or failure: analyzing the mechanisms enabling or blocking democratic openings in North Macedonia's 2015 mass mobilization

This article examines the 2015 mass mobilization in North Macedonia, a landmark episode in the country's democratic trajectory. Triggered by the release of wiretaps implicating top government officials in corruption and abuse, the protests united diverse societal groups in opposition to the ruling VMRO-DPMNE-led regime. While the movement succeeded in delegitimizing authoritarian rule and forcing political negotiations, it fell short of securing meaningful representation for grassroots actors in the resolution process. Using Michel Dobry's framework of multisectoral mobilization and drawing on interviews, media reports, and academic analyses, the article explores the internal dynamics of the protest coalition. It contrasts the informal, grassroots-driven Protestiram movement with the more institutionalized Citizens for Macedonia (CfM) coalition, supported by opposition parties and foreign donors. Although both shared a demand for democratization, differing priorities and unequal access to resources led to the marginalization of leftist grassroots groups. The article also assesses the European Union's role in the crisis. While EU mediation and the Priebe Report were pivotal in resolving the standoff and diagnosing institutional weaknesses, the EU's emphasis on elite negotiations and stability over participatory reform reinforced existing asymmetries within civil society and limited the transformative impact of the protests. Ultimately, the article argues that the 2015 mobilization was a critical moment of democratic resistance, but its potential was undercut by internal fragmentation, political co-optation, and externally mediated solutions that excluded bottom-up actors from meaningful influence.