Regression Discontinuity Analysis of Post-COVID-19 Reopening Effects on Urban Green Space Visitation: Evidence from Beijing and Shanghai

During the COVID-19 pandemic, sufficient access to urban green spaces enhanced residents’ health, particularly in densely populated areas subjected to lockdown and stay-at-home mandates. However, limited research has examined the effects of transitioning from strict containment measures to “reopening.” In this study, we used a unique dataset from two major Chinese cities, Beijing and Shanghai, to identify how changes in COVID-19 lockdown policy affected residents’ duration of green space use. A self-administered online survey (N = 2,545) was conducted between October 11 and December 29, 2022, covering the first stage of the COVID-19 containment policy change on November 21. The timing of the survey provides an opportunity to employ a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to evaluate how the removal of the containment policy affected the duration of green space use within and outside residential communities. Subgroup analyses were conducted to compare how the effects of COVID-19 policy vary according to demographic and socioeconomic factors. The findings indicate that the change to China’s COVID-19 lockdown policy led to an increase in the duration of green space use within residential communities among elderly people, while a decrease was observed among younger residents and females. High-income residents preferred outdoor recreational activities in urban and forest parks, and individuals living in commercial housing communities increased their duration of visits to green spaces within the community.