Urban Development and Land Surface Temperature : Spatiotemporal Analysis in Java’s Coastal Cities, Indonesia, 2000 to 2023

Purpose: This study analyzes the impacts of urban development on Land Surface Temperature (LST) across 68 coastal cities in Java Island, Indonesia (2000~2023). Understanding how urbanization affects LST is crucial for climate-responsive planning in these vulnerable areas. Method: Land cover was extracted using Landsat, while LST and climatic variables were derived from MODIS and CHIRPS datasets. These spatial data were integrated with socioeconomic indicators to construct a panel dataset, which was then tested using panel regression. Nine independent variables were tested, including total population, population density, GDP, GDP/capita, economic growth, built-up area, vegetation proportion, rainfall, and albedo. Through diagnostic tests, the Fixed Effects was selected as the best fit. Result: Land cover experienced an average 15% loss of vegetation, due to the conversion of cropland and sparse vegetation, especially in mid-sized cities such as Tangerang and Sleman. LST along the northern industrial corridor showed a higher trend, while southern cities remained cooler due to vegetation and topography. Population density and economic growth have a positive influence on LST, with a 0.17℃ temperature increase for every 1,000 people/km2 , and each 1% increase in economy growth corresponds to a 0.10℃ increase in LST. Vegetation, albedo, and rainfall had adverse effects on LST, with a 10% increase in vegetation lowering LST by 0.11℃, a 0.1 rise in average albedo by 1.24℃, and 100 mm rise in rainfall by 0.019℃. These patterns highlight the importance of integrating spatial and ecological considerations into climate-responsive urban planning.