Structural breakpoint in the relationship between retail diesel prices in Poland, crude oil prices, and the exchange rate

Changes in crude oil prices and the exchange rate, and their impact on diesel prices, pose a significant challenge to the economy. The dependence of modern economies on energy resources means that both their development and competitiveness, as well as the quality of life of citizens, are largely linked to the level of energy prices, including liquid fuels. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the mechanisms through which fuel prices are shaped. Analysis of these relationships is of great importance for shaping the state’s economic and fiscal policy, planning investments by enterprises, and predicting consumer behavior. The article presents the results of research on the transmission of changes in crude oil prices and the exchange rate to the retail prices of diesel oil in Poland in the years 2010–2024. The statistical analysis used a linear model and a power model. In the analyzed period, a so-called breakpoint was identified – a point at which the model parameters change in a statistically significant way. The results indicate that crude oil prices and the exchange rate are significant determinants in shaping the retail prices of diesel oil, but this impact is variable, and the elasticity of the response changes over different time periods. Taking breakpoints into account allows for better modeling of market reactions, and thus more effective corporate strategy planning and macroeconomic policymaking by the state.