Valorisation of the attractiveness of the Polish seaside real estate market in the era of military threats using GIS tools

One of the biggest problems of the modern world is geopolitical instability, which is manifested in the constantly emerging sources of international inflammatory conflicts. The crisis situation affects not only the mutual relations between communities, but also leaves its mark on financial markets, including real estate markets around the world. This topic became the inspiration to check and verify the state of threats to the coastal real estate market of the South Baltic, where Polish real estate is located. The main objective of the article is to show the impact of military threats on the attractiveness of the Polish coastal real estate market. The research problem in the article is specified in the form of a question: Do military threats affect the attractiveness of Polish coastal areas? The research hypothesis of the study is specified in the form of a statement that: contemporary military threats have a significant impact on the attractiveness of the coastal real estate market and are inversely proportional to the current investment tendencies of people. The article analyzes military threats in the Baltic Sea area, preceded by a review of literature resources and data from online resources. Secondary analysis of literature sources and statistical data was also performed. This method allowed for the analysis of military threats in the Baltic Sea area. Then, thanks to the use of the case study method, the main military threats and their impact on the coastal real estate market were classified. The simulation of military threats affecting the coastal market presented in the work, using a cartographic base with a generated heat map, is an innovative approach to issues related to valuation forecasts in situations of uncertainty, for which the stability feature should be key in estimating the value of real estate. The generated directionality of threats should also contribute to the verification of the spatial development planning system, including investments that currently do not include the aspect of military risk from a potential aggressor.