Geographic distribution, habitat suitability, and habitat loss of plains rough fescue ( <i>Festuca hallii</i> (Vasey) Piper) in North America

Plains rough fescue, a native species of North America's central plains, has experienced a decline due to land conversion and population fragmentation. To assess the historical distribution of this species, we employed ecological niche modeling. Presence records of Festuca hallii (Vasey) Piper were collected from the SEINet Portal Network, iNaturalist, herbaria in The United States and Canada, and Canadian conservation data centers. A model was developed using MaxEnt with 1048 records, seven climatic variables and nine soil variables. A habitat suitability map was generated illustrating the likely distribution of F. hallii before European settlement in 19th century. The species has a high probability of occurrence across the Canadian prairies, with fragmented distribution in regions of the Rocky Mountains of Alberta and United States. Good habitat for F. hallii is characterized by soil bulk density between 1.07 and 1.25 g cm −3 , annual mean temperature between 0.64 and 4.14 °C, precipitation during the warmest quarter between 149.72 and 228.19 mm, soil water content between 38.9% and 45.85%, and precipitation seasonality between 51.53% and 77.08%, which were the most important predictors in the model. Of the 450 206 km 2 historic range, approximately 63 273 km 2 , or 14.1%, remains intact with land cover/land use data indicating grassland conversion to agriculture as the main cause of habitat loss.