Recent multilevel demographic and compositional shifts in North Carolina Piedmont forests

Forest ecosystems in the eastern United States are undergoing significant compositional and demographic shift. To understand these changes, we used Forest Inventory & Analysis data (2003 - 2021) to examine landscape-scale trends in the North Carolina Piedmont, focusing on forest type groups, taxonomic family, and species. We assessed metrics such as annual net primary productivity, relative density, and biodiversity, aiming to determine: i) Which forest group types are changing most, ii) Whether these changes extend to lower taxonomic units, and iii) How stability has shifted over time. Our findings reveal an increasing dominance of Pinus species, particularly naturally regenerated loblolly pine (Pinus taeda), accompanied by sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua). This shift corresponds to rising prevalence of pine and oak-pine forest type groups. Notably, while red maple (Acer rubrum) consistently had high seedling densities, its recruitment lagged behind species like sweetgum and yellow-poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera), defying broader regional trends. These results highlight a clear progression from species-level changes to broader taxonomic families and forest types, emphasizing a shift toward pine in the region. The study underscores the importance of multi-level analyses for capturing ecological trends and advancing understanding of forest dynamics in changing landscapes.