Prioritizing vegetation restoration potential to facilitate snow leopard habitat recovery in Sanjiangyuan region

• 18 % of snow leopard habitat degraded, with 69% in medium to high suitability zones. • Matching identified reference states and quantified restoration potential. • High-suitability habitats exhibit both severe degradation and high potential. • Value-optimized scheme best balanced ecology and cost under resource constraints. In the face of accelerating biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, enhancing the effectiveness of ecological restoration under limited resources has become an urgent challenge. This study employed the snow leopard ( Panthera uncia ) as a case study to prioritize its restorable habitats through enhanced cost-effectiveness in the Sanjiangyuan region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A multi-scale framework was developed to identify restoration priority areas by integrating habitat suitability, vegetation degradation, and vegetation restoration potential (VRP). The aim was to scientifically identify areas of high ecological value for restoration while minimizing costs. We used species distribution models to predict snow leopard habitats and applied the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope trend analysis to assess vegetation change trends. To estimate vegetation’s ideal ecological state, the counterfactual matching was used to calculate VRP by comparing it with current conditions. Systematic conservation planning was then employed to delineate core and general restoration areas. Results show 17.8% of suitable habitats exhibit significant vegetation degradation, with 68.6% located in medium to high suitability areas. High-VRP areas are mainly concentrated in the central and southern parts of the habitat, indicating high restoration value. The identified restoration priority areas cover 30% of the study area, with core areas comprising 64% of this subset. The proposed framework achieves over 60% coverage of areas with high suitability, severe degradation, and high VRP, demonstrating its potential for maximizing ecological benefits and optimizing resource allocation. This study provides a scientific foundation and practical framework for formulating targeted restoration strategies and enhancing endangered species conservation.