Nonlinear Effects of Land Resource Misallocation and Carbon Emission Efficiency Across Various Industrial Structure Regimes: Evidence from PSTR Model

Carbon emission efficiency plays a vital role in the realization of the “dual carbon” goals. Taking land resource allocation as the entry point, this paper explores how land resource misallocation (LRM) affects carbon emission efficiency (CEE) to support the enhancement of CEE and the optimal allocation of land resources. Using 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2021 as an example, this paper constructs a panel smooth transition model (PSTR), with industrial structure as the transition variable, to examine the nonlinear impact effects of LRM on CEF and its regional heterogeneity. The research results show that the LRM index as a whole presents a fluctuating downward trend, while CEF shows a fluctuating but slow upward trend, and the regional differences in both LRM and CEF continue to expand. There exists a significant nonlinear relationship between LRM and CEF. When the advancement of industrial structure index shifts from the low regime to the high regime, the impact of LRM on CEF presents an inverted “U”-shaped curve characteristic. The nonlinear impact of LRM on CEF exhibits regional heterogeneity, and the threshold effect of industrial structure is the main reason for the regional differences in the nonlinear impact. Therefore, it is necessary to accelerate the market-oriented reform of land factor allocation, and to formulate phased and differentiated land resource allocation policies adapted to the stages of industrial structure development, so as to effectively serve the goals of green, low-carbon, and high-quality development.