Evolutionary Dynamics of Conservation Tillage Adoption Under Time Preference and Lemon Market

Conservation Tillage Technology (CTT) is vital for mitigating soil degradation, yet its adoption rates remain far below targets. This study develops an evolutionary game model that integrates heterogeneous time preferences and the lemon market effect to explore the dynamic adoption mechanisms among boundedly rational farmers. Results show that farmers with high discount rates (indicating strong time preference) undervalue long-term benefits, creating a significant barrier to CTT adoption. The lemon market effect, where P represents the benefit from information asymmetry for non-adopters and Q is the corresponding loss for adopters, critically shapes the system equilibria: (1) when P>Q, a stable coexistence of adoption strategies emerges; (2) when P<Q, the system exhibits unpredictable heteroclinic cycles; (3) when P=Q, it forms a conservative Hamiltonian system characterized by stable periodic oscillations. These findings provide a dynamic analytical framework for understanding green technology diffusion and offer a theoretical basis for crafting sustainable agricultural policies in developing countries.