Mapping climate change impacts on cocoa agroforestry systems in Cameroon to mitigate future deforestation

Abstract Climate change is projected to severely limit cocoa ( Theobroma cacao ) production, threatening livelihoods and increasing pressure on protected forests. To ensure resilient land-use planning, a nuanced understanding of climate change impacts on cocoa suitability—particularly within the context of diversified agroforestry systems and how they are embedded in protected forest areas—is crucial. To address this lack of knowledge, this study assesses the future viability of cocoa in Cameroon within a diversified agroforestry system, integrating high-value companion fruit trees such as safou ( Dacryodes edulis ) and mango ( Mangifera indica ), oil palm ( Elaeis guineensis ), and banana/plantains ( Musa spp.). Unlike previous assessments, we are using long-term projection climate data until 2100, incorporate protected area constraints, and advance the EcoCrop model by integrating consecutive dry months. The results indicate a reduction in the suitable area for cocoa production in Cameroon from the current 64% of the total land area to 27% by 2090 under the high emission scenario SSP370. However, the suitable area for Musa spp. remains stable, while the suitable area for oil palm slightly increases. Regarding diversification, by 2090, only 8% of the national area is projected to remain suitable for a diversified system (including five species, such as cocoa), whereas 42% of the country is expected to be suitable for an oil palm-based system. Nevertheless, shading trees such as mango and safou remain suitable in up to 100% of the cocoa loss areas under SSP370, offering hope for mitigating the impact of climate change on cocoa production. Furthermore, diversified agroforestry enables year-round harvests, stabilizing farmers’ incomes and enhancing food security. This study provides critical insights for stakeholders to develop climate-resilient cocoa agroforestry systems that sustain cash crop production, protect livelihoods, and reduce deforestation in Cameroon.