A Comprehensive Reanalysis of K2-18 b’s JWST NIRISS+NIRSpec Transmission Spectrum

Abstract Sub-Neptunes are the most common type of planet in our galaxy. Interior structure models suggest that the coldest sub-Neptunes could host liquid water oceans underneath their hydrogen envelopes—sometimes called “hycean” planets. JWST transmission spectra of the ∼250 K sub-Neptune K2-18 b were recently used to report detections of CH 4 and CO 2 , alongside weaker evidence of (CH 3 ) 2 S (dimethyl sulfide, or DMS). Atmospheric CO 2 was interpreted as evidence for a liquid water ocean, while DMS was highlighted as a potential biomarker. However, these notable claims were derived using a single data reduction and retrieval modeling framework, which did not allow for standard robustness tests. Here, we present a comprehensive reanalysis of K2-18 b’s JWST NIRISS SOSS and NIRSpec G395H transmission spectra, including the first analysis of the second-order NIRISS SOSS data. We incorporate multiple well-tested data reduction pipelines and retrieval codes, spanning 60 different data treatments and over 250 atmospheric retrievals. We confirm the detection of CH 4 (≈4 σ ), with a volume mixing ratio range <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>2.14</mml:mn> <mml:mo>≤</mml:mo> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>log</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>10</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CH</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>4</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> <mml:mo>≤</mml:mo> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.53</mml:mn> </mml:math> , but we find no statistically significant or reliable evidence for CO 2 or DMS. Finally, we assess the retrieved atmospheric composition using photochemical-climate and interior models, demonstrating that our revised composition of K2-18 b can be explained by an oxygen-poor mini-Neptune without requiring a liquid water surface or life.