Spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation carbon sink and its driving mechanisms in the Huaihai Economic Zone, China

This study aims to advance urban low-carbon transformation and foster a sustainable, livable environment. By utilizing MOD17A3 NPP and meteorological data, the net ecosystem production (NEP) of the Huaihai Economic Zone from 2001 to 2023 was estimated. The research used trend analysis, centroid migration models, the Hurst index, spatial autocorrelation, partial correlation, and the optimal parameter geographic detector (OPGD) to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of NEP. Results indicate an overall increasing trend in NEP, with 57.62% of the region showing growth, although some areas experienced declines. Most areas (51.89%) display weak anti-persistence. Gross domestic product (GDP) and population density significantly account for its spatial heterogeneity. Based on these findings, the study recommends prioritizing ecological restoration in areas characterized by high volatility and weak anti-persistence and optimizing carbon sink strategies in regions where economic growth and vegetation conditions present synergistic advantages.