Spatial–Temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Shrinking County Towns’ Resilience in China

Enhancing shrinking county towns’ resilience (SCTR) is crucial for fostering high-quality development and supporting China’s new urbanization strategy. However, research on resilience in shrinking areas remains limited, particularly at the county level—characterized as an “urban-rural intermediary”. In this study, we develop an evaluation framework based on a coupled human–environment perspective. Using this framework, we assess SCTR across various regions and levels of shrinkage in China from 2013 to 2022, while analyzing the coupling coordination degree among subsystems. To address challenges such as nonlinearity, spatial heterogeneity, and interpretability in attribution analysis, we integrate the Geographically Weighted Random Forest (GWRF) model with the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) model. The results show a gradual increase in resilience throughout the study period. Spatially, a distinct East–West disparity emerges, with higher resilience in the East and lower resilience in the West, as delineated by the Hu Line. For extreme-shrinking counties, population decline has become a paramount constraint on their resilience. Key factors, including local fiscal revenue, GDP, the Gini coefficient, and urbanization levels, have a significant impact on SCTR. Notably, in counties undergoing severe or extreme shrinkage, population decline has become a critical barrier to resilience. This study provides scientific insights and policy recommendations for the development of a sustainable and resilient county-town system in China.