In for a penny: An empirical study of earthquake experience and non‐pharmaceutical intervention effectiveness in the Marche region

Abstract This study investigates whether prior exposure to natural disasters influenced individual compliance with non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), specifically lockdown measures, during the Corona Virus Infectious Disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic. Focusing on the Marche region of Italy, which experienced a severe earthquake in 2016, we exploit the randomness of both the earthquake and the pandemic to construct a natural experiment. Employing a quantitative methodology, including fixed effects and hybrid models, we analyse municipality‐level data to assess differential effects of lockdowns on the incidence of new COVID‐19 cases. Our findings reveal that municipalities affected by the earthquake exhibited significantly lower reductions in infection rates following the implementation of lockdowns compared to unaffected areas. This suggests that disaster exposure may reduce the effectiveness of NPIs, potentially due to psychological mechanisms, such as hedonic revaluation, risk substitution or post‐disaster fatigue. These results carry important policy implications, highlighting the need for tailored public health strategies that account for the behavioural legacies of traumatic events.