Estimating the Effect of Positivity About Immigrants on Vote Choice in the 2020 US Presidential Election

ABSTRACT Much of the research that estimates how attitudes about immigrants affect outcomes uses a measure that ranges from a lack of negativity about immigrants to a high level of negativity about immigrants. But this overlooks the effect of positivity about immigrants. The present study illustrates a method that uses a neutral point of indifference about immigrants to separate the effect of positivity about immigrants from the effect of negativity about immigrants. Analysis of data from the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group VOTER Survey suggested that positivity about immigrants was an important predictor of vote choice in the 2020 US presidential election. Generally, these results suggest that readers and researchers should consider whether key predictors have a neutral point and how to interpret results from predictors that do not isolate this neutrality.