Revealing the causes of ecosystem stability changes in the Northern Sand Prevention Belt of China over the past twenty years

Wind-driven soil degradation and desertification critically impair regional ecosystem stability and sustainable functioning. The Northern Sand Prevention Belt (NSPB) is a high-intensity wind erosion area in China and a core area for combating sandification and desertification. Current studies emphasize NSPB's windbreaks and sand-fixing function, overlooking ecosystem stability dynamics and drivers. Therefore, this study developed a comprehensive framework based on the Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ), regional ecosystem stability model (RES), random forest model, and SHAP method to simultaneously characterize the spatiotemporal variations in regional wind erosion and ecosystem stability. This work examines 2000-2020 spatiotemporal dynamics of wind erosion and ecosystem stability in the NSPB, and identifies driving factors across natural-economic-social dimensions. The results show: (1) The intensity of wind erosion in the NSPB increased dramatically from 2000 to 2005 and decreased between 2005 and 2020. During 2005-2020, slightly erosion rose 3.9%, violently erosion fell 5.5%, and wind erosion intensity declined markedly. Compared to 2000, the windbreak and sand fixation amount decreased from 2.082×10 7 t to 0.9692×10 7 t by 2005, followed by a fluctuating increase thereafter. (2) NSPB saw improved ecological stability over 2000-2020, with precipitation and GDP as key drivers. (3) The number of strong wind days is the main factor affecting the wind erosion intensity in the NSPB. The eastward shift of the high-value zones of strong wind days (regions with >46 days annually when wind speed ≥5 m/s) may alter the key regions prone to wind erosion, posing new challenges for the NSPB. Findings support enhancing NSPB ecosystem stability and spatial optimization. • Ecosystem stability in the NSPB from 2000-2020 had an upward trend. • From 2000 to 2020, the wind erosion intensity in the NSPB showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. • Precipitation and GDP were the primary factors influencing the ecosystem stability in the NSPB. • The number of strong wind days is the main factor affecting the wind erosion intensity in the NSPB. • The eastward shift of the high-value zones of strong wind days may alter the key regions prone to wind erosion in the NSPB.