Emission Reduction and Pricing Decisions of Dual-Channel Supply Chain Considering Price Reference Effect Under Carbon-Emission Policy

Sustainable development, which integrates economic progress with environmental stewardship to serve societal needs, seeks a balanced approach to resource utilization and intergenerational equity. Implementing carbon policies to limit emissions in production is an effective measure that also puts pressure on the supply chain’s profitability. Meanwhile, the emergence of the price reference effect affects consumers’ behavior and the decisions of supply chain members. This study constructs a dual-channel supply chain model under three carbon policy scenarios within a manufacturer-led Stackelberg game framework. The model is solved analytically to examine equilibrium outcomes and investigate the influence of channel competition, the price reference effect, and carbon policies on profitability and carbon emissions across different scenarios. The results are as follows. (1) As consumers’ online channel preference increases, manufacturers’ profits turn from falling to rising, especially under a lower carbon tax (higher carbon quota), with profit growing earlier. (2) A stronger price reference effect encourages higher emission reduction efforts, selling prices, and profits in smaller markets. However, this effect can reduce prices and profits due to increased competition and pricing pressure in larger markets. (3) The influence of carbon tax and emission quota on emission reduction and price depends on the initial carbon emission of the product, and their interaction has different impacts on total profits at different initial emission levels. (4) Within the mixed policy, the supply chain can obtain better economic and environmental benefits at a specific range of basic market demand. This study provides valuable references for formulating tactics to cope with low-carbon demand and price reference effects, as well as for developing effective environmental protection policies.