The Newcomer's dilemma: Navigating strategic risks in nuclear fuel cycle development a simulation-based framework for Indonesia

This paper presents a comprehensive simulation-driven framework to optimize the nuclear fuel cycle for Indonesia's ambitious 2060 net-zero roadmap. Utilizing the IAEA's INPRO ROADMAPS-ET model, the analysis quantifies the massive material flows required to support a 44 GWe (99-reactors) fleet, including demands for 131,000 tonnes of uranium and the management of nearly 15,000 tHM of spent fuel. More significantly, the analysis moves beyond mere quantification to uncover critical strategic dilemmas. It identifies a "Fabrication Sovereignty Gap" with over 90% import reliance, a "Converter's Dilemma" driven by high market entry barriers, and a "Backend Reality Gap" between optimistic planning and geopolitical realities of waste management. These findings underscore the necessity of a dual-track policy for waste and phased localization for fuel supply. Ultimately, this study provides a replicable analytical framework and a new vocabulary for emerging nuclear nations to assess and navigate the complex trade-offs between sovereignty, security, and economic viability in their decarbonization strategies.