Assessing the impact of climate change on mean annual wave agitation and berth downtime at two major ports of the eastern Mediterranean Sea: Port of Piraeus, Greece and Port of Limassol, Cyprus

This study assesses the impact of climate change on mean annual wave agitation and berth downtime at two major Eastern Mediterranean ports: Port of Piraeus, Greece, and Port of Limassol, Cyprus. Using high-fidelity numerical modeling under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) up to 2100, changes in port basin wave agitation are evaluated, with and without accounting for Sea Level Rise (SLR). Results indicate that climate change will not uniformly increase wave agitation; outcomes vary depending on the adopted RCP scenario, time period, and berth location. Regarding mean annual berth downtime, more exposed berths in both ports are projected to face significant increases. The influence of SLR on downtime is inconsistent, especially at Port of Piraeus, where it may increase, decrease, or have negligible effects depending on location. These findings highlight the complex interplay between wave dynamics, local geomorphology, and port infrastructure, emphasizing the importance of port-specific climate resilience assessments. • Historical & future wave agitation in the port of Piraeus & Limassol was evaluated. • Future wave climate & Sea Level Rise (SLR) impacts assessed for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. • No consistent rise in wave agitation; varies by RCP, time horizon, and port basin. • SLR slightly boosts agitation; berth downtime impact depends on its location. • Exposed berths are projected to face significant increases in downtime.