Unraveling the Triple Nexus of the Digital Economy, Industrial Transformation, and Carbon Emissions: Evidence from China

Achieving carbon neutrality is a global priority, and China’s “dual-carbon” goals place urgent demands on emission reduction. In this context, the digital economy and industrial structure transformation are key drivers of synergistic carbon mitigation and sustainable development. This study constructs an integrated analytical framework, combining an improved three-system coupling coordination model, exploratory spatial data analysis, and panel vector autoregression, using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2013 and 2022. The results reveal three main findings: (1) Spatial heterogeneity: The digital economy follows an “advanced East—catching-up Central—lagging West” pattern, while carbon emissions show a “higher North—lower South” gradient. (2) Improving coordination with regional disparities: Overall coupling coordination has steadily increased, but Eastern provinces exhibit stronger synergistic capabilities than Central and Western regions. (3) Bidirectional interactions and self-reinforcing effects: Digital economy development drives industrial structure upgrading, which in turn promotes long-term carbon reduction; all three systems display self-reinforcing dynamics. These findings provide robust empirical evidence on the complex co-evolution of digital economy, industrial transformation, and carbon emissions, offering actionable insights for policymakers to design region-specific strategies for coordinated low-carbon development.