Integrating Bioactive Compound Variation and Habitat Suitability to Map the Quality Zoning of Crataegus pinnatifida Bunge Under Human Activity and Climate Change: A Biomod2 Ensemble Modeling Approach

Chinese hawthorn (Crataegus pinnatifida) offers both medicinal and nutritional benefits due to its bioactive compounds. However, the combined effects of environmental and anthropogenic factors on its geographic distribution and medicinal quality remain insufficiently explored. Species distribution modeling (Biomod2) was integrated with ArcGIS-based spatial analysis to systematically model suitable habitats for C. pinnatifida across varying environmental and anthropogenic conditions, while concurrently assessing the spatial distribution patterns of medicinally active compounds. Furthermore, multi-scenario climate simulations were utilized to predict the impacts of future climate change on the spatial distribution patterns of this species. Anthropogenic activities strongly influence C. pinnatifida habitat suitability, followed by BIO18 (Precipitation of Warmest Quarter) and BIO4 (Temperature Seasonality). Bioactive compound heterogeneity is driven by anthropogenic activities, AWC (Soil Available Water Content), BIO12 (Annual Precipitation), and BIO4. High-suitability/high-quality areas are concentrated in Shandong Province. Under SSP126 (low emissions), high-suitability areas remain stable (2050s–2090s) with northeastward centroid shifts; under SSP585 (high emissions), they contract with southeastward centroid migration. Shandong is the optimal long-term cultivation region across scenarios. These findings establish a critical basis for cultivating C. pinnatifida with enhanced medicinal properties, developing adaptive management strategies to strengthen conservation, and ensuring sustainable utilization amid global climate change.