Simulated Impact of Vegetation Greening on Summer Arctic Cyclone Intensity in the Northern Eurasia Margin in <scp>WRFs</scp>

ABSTRACT With the emergence of the ‘Arctic amplification’ phenomenon in recent years, vegetation in the circum‐Arctic region has exhibited significant greening trends, while summer Arctic cyclones have also shown a notable increase in both frequency and intensity. To explore the potential relationship between Arctic vegetation changes—particularly in the northern margin of the Eurasian continent (NME)—and the intensification of Arctic cyclone activity under the backdrop of accelerated Arctic warming, this study investigates the impact of vegetation greening on the intensity of summer Arctic cyclones in this region. Using GIMSS 3G+ NDVI data from 1982 to 2022, combined with the WRF numerical weather model, the analysis reveals that, compared to the 1980s, tundra regions such as the central and eastern parts of the NME experienced the most pronounced increase in vegetation, corresponding to significant warming in these areas. As temperatures rose markedly, the north–south land‐sea temperature gradient in the NME intensified, enhancing atmospheric baroclinicity in coastal regions. Consequently, cyclone intensity increased accordingly. The rise in the Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) led to an increase in the Leaf Area Index (LAI) while reducing surface albedo, allowing the surface to absorb more shortwave solar radiation. This process plays a critical role in driving the rise in near‐surface temperatures and the development of cyclones.