Deciphering Relative Sea-Level Change in Chesapeake Bay: Impact of Global Mean, Regional Variation, and Local Land Subsidence, Part 1: Methodology

The Chesapeake Bay (CB) region faces significant risks from relative sea-level change (RSLC), driven by global mean sea-level rise (GMSLR), regional sea-level rise (RSLR), and local land subsidence (LS). This study introduces a methodology to decipher RSLC trends in the CB area by integrating these components. We develop trend equations spanning 1900–2100, incorporating acceleration for GMSLR and RSLR since 1992, with linear LS estimation using tide gauge, satellite altimetry, and InSAR data. Our approach employs dynamic RSLC equations, Maclaurin series expansions, and inverse simulations to project RSLC trends through 2100. Stable RSLC rates require over 122 years of data for reliable linear trend estimation, with the Baltimore tide gauge providing the necessary long-term dataset. Similarity in monthly mean sea-level variations within a coastal region enables a new method to identify LS from short-term tide gauge data by correlating it with corresponding long-term data at Baltimore. LS is categorized into bedrock-surface subsidence (BSS) and compaction subsidence (CS), with methods proposed to map BSS contours and estimate CS. CS is further classified into primary consolidation, secondary consolidation, construction-induced, and negative subsidence to determine specific compaction types. The projection model highlights the dominant influence of GMSLR acceleration since 1992, with local LS and RSLR influenced by ocean circulation, density changes, and gravitational, rotational, and deformational (GRD) effects. This integrated approach enhances understanding and predictive reliability for RSLC trends, supporting resilience planning and infrastructure adaptation in coastal CB communities.