Repercussions of rainfall and river flow trends under a changing climate on local communities’ livelihood strategies in Southern Tanzania

This study examines the impacts of rainfall and river flow trends on livelihood strategies in the Great Ruaha Catchment Area, Tanzania. A mixed-methods approach was employed in data collection and analysis by involving 170 household heads and 9 key informants from Idodi Ward. Data were collected through a survey questionnaire, in-depth interviews, observation and documentary review methods. Quantitative and qualitative data were analysed through descriptive, inferential and content analysis. Archival data on rainfall and river flow were analysed using simple linear analysis and the Mann-Kendall test to establish and test the trends. Future projections were generated using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Findings revealed the existence of climate change perceived through declining rainfall (98.2%), rising temperatures (64%), and reduced river flow (53%). Archival records indicate a decreasing trend in both rainfall and river flow, with a statistically significant decline in river flow (p = 0.0007). The chi-square analysis revealed significant associations between climate variables and cropping systems at the 5% significance level, except for temperature and rainfall in relation to crop dominance. The study concludes that both rainfall and river flow have indicated declining trends, posing serious challenges to agriculture and water availability in the region and the nation as well. To mitigate these effects, the study recommends a coordinated, integrated approach involving multiple institutions to support climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Such efforts are essential for enhancing the resilience of local communities and preserving ecosystems in the Great Ruaha Catchment Area and similar areas.