Pathways to green hydrogen production as a sustainable energy solution in Kenya by 2040

Given the Kenyan challenges in energy availability, accessibility, and affordability, exploring green hydrogen as a sustainable energy solution is supreme. This study aimed to assess the potential of green hydrogen production, a transformative clean energy technology, and its implications for Kenya's future energy. The specific objectives were to identify the drivers of change that could accelerate green hydrogen adoption and policy recommendations. The study employed a scenario planning approach, focusing on four key steps: defining the scenario and time horizon, identifying drivers of change, and developing and applying scenarios. The diffusion of innovation theory guided the study. Twelve key critical drivers of change were identified, with societal and industry acceptance of green hydrogen and compatibility with existing energy infrastructure being the strongest drivers of change from cross-impact analysis results. The study outlined four plausible future scenarios for adoption: Successful Production (best scenario), Low Production, Chaotic Transition, and Rejection of Green Hydrogen Production (worst scenario). Major opportunities include advancements in hydrogen production, export potential, and job creation. Cost competitiveness analysis is essential, comparing Kenya's hydrogen with traditional fuels and African peers. Economic models suggest that Kenya's renewable energy can lower costs, enhancing its position in clean energy innovation. However, critical challenges involve regulatory uncertainty, ethical concerns, public misconceptions about green hydrogen safety, and financial barriers due to high initial investment costs. The study recommended that the Kenyan government invest in renewable energy infrastructure, formulate a comprehensive national hydrogen policy, and establish an enabling environment to attract private investment. In conclusion, green hydrogen production stands as a strategic pillar for Kenya’s sustainable energy transition, and further research should focus on strengthening regulatory frameworks and enhancing public engagement to unlock its full potential.