Opportunity Assessment for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production from Woody Biomass via Ex Situ Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis and Refinery Hydroprocessing

Biofuels have become a promising solution to reduce emissions in hard-to-electrify transportation sectors, such as aviation. However, several biofuel conversion pathways will likely be needed to scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production to meet lower carbon intensity goals when biomass feedstock availability constraints are considered. This study evaluates the future potential of the catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) pathway to contribute to U.S. SAF production goals as outlined in the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) SAF Grand Challenge, understanding that the CFP pathway is still under development toward maturity and scaleup. National forestland resource data from the DOE's 2023 Billion Ton Study are integrated with recent experimental results demonstrating end-to-end woody biomass conversion to SAF via CFP and hydroprocessing in a novel bioeconomy optimization framework. U.S. refinery hydroprocessing capacity is also considered with repurposing and coprocessing strategies. Results indicate that the CFP process can contribute up to 4.6 billion gallons of SAF annually by 2040, meeting 13% of the 2050 SAF Grand Challenge target while reducing the carbon intensity (CI) of the U.S. jet fuel pool by 16%. The study further explores optimal processing strategies, suggesting that colocating CFP operations with existing petroleum refineries and repurposing some U.S. hydrocracking capacity may offer significant cost advantages and enhance the commercial viability of the CFP pathway. These results underscore the CFP pathway's potential to support the global aviation industry's lower carbon intensity objectives while producing other renewable fuels and products.