Assessing the Dynamic Evolution of Global Energy Poverty Under Uncertain Climate Trends–Shaped Future Pathways

ABSTRACT Energy poverty hinders the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and effective climate governance. It is important to assess the dynamic evolution of energy poverty influenced by climate change, socioeconomic development, and energy poverty reduction policies. This study constructs a global energy poverty assessment indicator system with three dimensions: energy availability, affordability, and cleanability. We use a system dynamic integrated assessment model to evaluate the dynamic evolution of global energy poverty from 2025 to 2100 across 192 scenarios considering eight climate categories (targets), three demographic–economic pathways, and three policy clusters. Results show that the energy poverty index (EPI) is most influenced by energy cleanability, followed by affordability and availability. Achieving more stringent climate targets helps to reduce energy poverty, and the two optimal policy combinations identified reduce EPI by up to 22% by 2050 and 41% by 2100. This study provides insights for synergistic climate and energy poverty governance, supporting SDGs advancement.