Consequences of Land Degradation Under Climate Stress in Northern China: Linking Agriculture, Water, and Rural Development

ABSTRACT Land degradation threatens global food security and ecological sustainability, with Northern China particularly vulnerable due to its pivotal role in agricultural production and exposure to climate stress. This study assesses the impacts of land degradation under climate stress, hypothesizing that environmental factors especially drought and water quality significantly affect agriculture, water resources, and rural development. The objective is to inform sustainable policy measures aligned with global sustainability goals. Panel data from 2000 to 2023 for eight provinces (Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin) were analyzed using dynamic Generalized Method of Moments and Vector Autoregression models. Data sources include the China Statistical Yearbook and the Ministry of Water Resources. Results show that land degradation is highly persistent, with drought severity, measured by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), as the primary driver. The SPI is a probabilistic measure of precipitation anomalies, standardized against historical data, where values below −1 indicate moderate to severe drought, −1.5 to −2 signify extreme drought, and below −2 represent exceptional drought conditions, thereby quantifying the intensity and duration of water deficits impacting land health. The effects of temperature and precipitation operate mainly through drought, whereas agricultural variables (crop yield, irrigation, fertilizer use) have no direct impact once climate factors are controlled. Poor water quality exacerbates degradation, whereas socio‐economic indicators, such as rural income, display no direct effect. These findings underscore the urgency of integrated policies combining climate adaptation, water management, and land conservation to secure sustainable agriculture and rural development in Northern China. By clarifying the pathways through which climatic and environmental pressures influence land degradation, this research advances understanding of degradation dynamics in semi‐arid regions and supports strategies for achieving land degradation neutrality in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.