Global trend and geographic distribution of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2021 and its prediction until 2030

This study aimed to determine global thyroid cancer incidence and mortality trends from 1990 to 2021 and their projections for 2030. This ecological study extracted data on global thyroid cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) website. Data analysis was performed using Join Point software version 5.0.2 to evaluate trends in incidence and mortality. The age-standardized incidence rate in all World Health Organization (WHO) regions was higher in women than men. This study showed that the average annual changes in the incidence of thyroid cancer increased from 1990 to 2021. The highest annual increase was observed in men and women in the Eastern Mediterranean region and the lowest in Europe. Average annual changes in mortality rates from 1990 to 2021 showed that mortality rates decreased in Europe and Africa but increased in the Eastern Mediterranean region and Southeast Asia. Projections for 2023 showed that the incidence of thyroid cancer will increase for both men and women in the Eastern Mediterranean. Meanwhile, a decreasing incidence was observed in the European region for women. Projections for 2030 showed that female mortalities would still be higher than male mortalities, except in the Western Pacific region. Also, the highest mortality in women was reported in the Eastern Mediterranean region, and in men, the Southeast Asian region showed an increasing trend. This study shows an increasing trend in the incidence of thyroid cancer in most regions, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean. It emphasizes that mortality in women is still higher than in men. A decrease in mortality was observed in some regions, such as Europe and Africa, but in Southeast Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean, this has been increasing. These findings highlight regional disparities in the burden of thyroid cancer and suggest that there may be a need to improve cancer surveillance and more equitable access to health services in regions with increasing trends in incidence and mortality.