A rapidly closing window for coral persistence under global warming

Coral reefs around the world are increasingly threatened by marine heatwaves causing widespread coral bleaching and mortality. Global analyses of projected heatwaves can inform decision-making, but forecasting the interactions between disturbance refugia, coral life histories and capacity to adapt is key for guiding strategic management of coral persistence. Here, we simulate coral eco-evolutionary dynamics across 3800 reefs of Australia's Great Barrier Reef under current climate projections. We project a rapid coral decline by mid-century under all emission scenarios, with further decline under the most likely warming trajectory. However, recovery is possible this century if warming remains below 2 °C, allowing thermal adaptation to keep pace. Our simulations show that resilient reefs are primarily in bleaching refugia, which also support a greater diversity of thermal phenotypes. While cool-adapted corals disperse to warm spots, we found no evidence of 'gene swamping' undermining thermal adaptation. Our findings highlight that management opportunities exist to promote adaptation in thermal refugia and warm spots, but emphasize that curbing global warming by 2050 is crucial for coral persistence.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2025-11-05
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65015-4
Citations
7
Primary Topic
Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
12.01

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article

A rapidly closing window for coral persistence under global warming

Beatriz Arellano Nava, Jennifer K. McWhorter, Peter J. Mumby, Kenneth R. N. Anthony et al.
7 citations
Nature Communications
Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
12.01
article

A rapidly closing window for coral persistence under global warming

Beatriz Arellano Nava, Jennifer K. McWhorter, Peter J. Mumby, Kenneth R. N. Anthony, Yves‐Marie Bozec, Arne A. S. Adam, Samuel A. Matthews, Liam Lachs, Anna K. Cresswell, Paul R. Halloran, Juan-Carlos Ortiz, Vanessa Haller‐Bull, Cynthia Riginos, Takuya Iwanaga, Scott A. Condie
article en
7 citations

Abstract

Coral reefs around the world are increasingly threatened by marine heatwaves causing widespread coral bleaching and mortality. Global analyses of projected heatwaves can inform decision-making, but forecasting the interactions between disturbance refugia, coral life histories and capacity to adapt is key for guiding strategic management of coral persistence. Here, we simulate coral eco-evolutionary dynamics across 3800 reefs of Australia's Great Barrier Reef under current climate projections. We project a rapid coral decline by mid-century under all emission scenarios, with further decline under the most likely warming trajectory. However, recovery is possible this century if warming remains below 2 °C, allowing thermal adaptation to keep pace. Our simulations show that resilient reefs are primarily in bleaching refugia, which also support a greater diversity of thermal phenotypes. While cool-adapted corals disperse to warm spots, we found no evidence of 'gene swamping' undermining thermal adaptation. Our findings highlight that management opportunities exist to promote adaptation in thermal refugia and warm spots, but emphasize that curbing global warming by 2050 is crucial for coral persistence.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 16(1)
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU), Australian Institute of Marine Science (AU), University of Miami (US), Queensland University of Technology (AU), The University of Queensland (AU), The University of Western Australia (AU), University of Exeter (GB), Newcastle University (GB)
Australian Government
Openalex Percentile: Top 1%
Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
12.01
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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