An Evaluation of the competitiveness of Egyptian grapes and dates under the agricultural development strategy 2030

This study aimed to analyze the performance and competitiveness of Egypt's foreign trade during 2004–2023 period, focusing specifically on grape and date exports, the two strategic horticultural commodities in Egypt. It combined historical performance evaluation with quantitative forecasting using Holt’s Linear Trend Model to inform value-added export strategies. Using a quantitative time-series analysis based on data from FAOSTAT, Trademap, the World Bank, and CAPMAS, the research assessed key performance indicators, including trade coverage ratio, economic dependency rate, and trade participation. Despite substantial production volumes, averaging 1.51 million tons of grapes and 1.48 million tons of dates annually, export-to-production ratios remain low at 6.35% and 3%, respectively. The analysis reveals persistent trade deficits in both the overall and agricultural trade balances, with average annual growth rates of 4.7% for imports surpassing 3.3% for total exports, and a rising agricultural trade deficit averaging $7.5 billion. The relative export share of grapes declined from 27.09% in 2007 to 13.19% in 2023, while dates remained under 10.08%. Forecasting results showed a positive trend in export volumes for both crops, with grape exports expected to reach 150.85 thousand tons and date exports 107.21 thousand tons by 2030. Moreover, date exports are projected to experience a 125% increase in value, driven by simultaneous growth in volume and export price. Finally, it is recommended strengthening value chains, improving post-harvest infrastructure and quality standards, diversifying export markets, and institutionalizing forecasting tools within national trade policy. These findings are relevant for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to enhance Egypt’s agricultural trade competitiveness globally