Research on the Fallow Compensation Mechanism for Groundwater Overexploitation in the Tarim River Basin Under Bidirectional Collaboration

Exploring the differentiated fallow compensation (FC) standards in different regions is of great significance for formulating and improving the mechanism of fallow compensation and ensuring the sustainability of policies. The groundwater overexploitation area in the Tarim River Basin was selected as the research area; this study breaks through the perspective of a single subject and integrates the “opportunity cost” of the compensated subject and the “ecosystem service value” of the compensating subject into a unified analysis framework to obtain the fallow compensation standard, and the logistic model is used to analyze the influencing factors of farmers’ compensation method selection. The results are as follows: (1) The FC standards exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity. The range of FC standards in various counties is 5540.40 to 7770.53 CNY/hm2 (769.50 to 1079.24 USD/hm2), which is generally lower than the current standard. (2) There are three main compensation methods chosen by farmers, ranked in descending order of selection ratio: monetary compensation (72.06%) > physical compensation (19.37%) > technical compensation (8.57%). (3) The factors influencing the choice of compensation method are quite complex. The dependency ratio is the main influencing factor in the choice of monetary compensation (β = 0.738); the evaluation of economic conditions has a significant negative correlation with the choice of physical compensation (β = −0.562), and nonfarm household income is the main influencing factor for choosing technical compensation (β = 0.747). This study provides a new perspective for determining FC standards and aims to provide a theoretical basis for local governments to improve their fallow policies.